While headlines trumpet a Gaza ceasefire deal that is “90 per cent done,” a number of unspoken risks and potential spoilers lie just beneath the surface. The success of this fragile agreement is far from guaranteed and depends on navigating several critical challenges.
One major risk is the vagueness of the post-war plan. Hamas has only agreed “in principle and generalities” to discuss Gaza’s future. This leaves room for profound disagreement down the line, potentially reigniting conflict even if a ceasefire is achieved now. President Trump’s demand for Hamas to cede power is likely to be a major point of contention.
Another risk lies in the implementation. The “logistical piece” mentioned by Secretary of State Marco Rubio is fraught with peril. A prisoner exchange and military pullback are complex operations where miscommunication or a rogue action could easily shatter the truce and lead to renewed violence.
Furthermore, the deal relies heavily on the threat of force from the U.S. While Trump’s warning of “obliteration” may be a powerful motivator for Hamas now, the long-term stability of the region cannot permanently rest on a single administration’s willingness to use overwhelming force.
Finally, the internal politics of both Israel and Hamas present another risk. Leaders on both sides could face backlash from hardline factions who view any compromise as a betrayal. While optimism is high, these underlying risks must be managed carefully for the deal to translate into a lasting peace.