The trust gap between the US and China has significantly narrowed in Australia, as a new poll reveals a majority of Australians now expect China to become the world’s most powerful country by 2035. This comes as trust in the United States has tumbled to its lowest level since polling began.
Only 36% of Australians now trust the US to act responsibly on the global stage, a sharp 20-point fall from 2024. Confidence in the current US President’s approach to world affairs is particularly low, contrasting sharply with sentiment towards his predecessor. Conversely, trust in the Chinese leader has seen a slight uptick, and Australians are now equally divided on who presents a more reliable partnership.
For the first time in five years, Australians are as likely to view China as an economic partner as they are a security threat, though underlying distrust persists, with many still believing China poses a future military threat. Despite the erosion of trust in the US, a majority of Australians continue to believe the US would come to Australia’s defense in an attack, albeit with a reduced level of certainty compared to recent years.
This apparent disconnect, where support for the military alliance remains strong despite plummeting trust in the US leadership, suggests Australians are distinguishing between the instability of recent US foreign policy and the enduring value of the alliance institution itself. The halving of the trust gap between the US and China since 2024 is a compelling indicator of shifting geopolitical sentiments in Australia.